The Importance of an Awards Season Narrative
Before we get into the Rock’s Oscar chances this season, it’s crucial to understand just how influential a strong PR narrative can be to a contender’s odds. There are several common narratives that take shape nearly every year. There’s the “overdue narrative,” which worked well for Leonardo DiCaprio in 2016, when he finally won his Oscar for The Revenant after five losses. Additionally, there’s the “breakthrough performer,” someone who bursts onto the film scene with a performance no one saw coming. We saw that narrative play out well last year when Mikey Madison took home the Best Actress award for Anora.
Of course, it’s worth noting that a strong narrative does not mean everything for an awards campaign. For instance, the overdue narrative has not seemed to work well for Glenn Close and Amy Adams, both of whom have racked up eight and six losses, respectively. This just goes to show that sometimes, the performance and narrative may be there, but the strength of the competition will always be that uncontrollable factor. Furthermore, it always helps if the film is a strong contender across the board. Last year, Demi Moore couldn’t quite win the Oscar in the end not because of the performance or the narrative, but because The Substance was clearly not as beloved by the Academy members as Anora was. That being said, Moore’s narrative took her much farther in the race than most horror movie performances typically go, once again confirming the effectiveness of a strong comeback narrative.
The Rock’s Oscar Narrative
For Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, a couple of narratives seem to be at work here simultaneously. First, Johnson is playing a real-life character, one that involves transformative character work and heavy makeup. Within the last decade, several Best Actor wins involved physical transformations, from Rami Malek’s Freddie Mercury to Gary Oldman’s Winston Churchill (and, of course, Brendan Fraser in The Whale).
Then, there’s the narrative of a beloved actor challenging himself and venturing outside of his comfort zone and into unknown territory. Johnson is well aware of the fact that he is not known for serious roles. However, he has been working in mainstream Hollywood for decades and has therefore made a lot of folks in this industry a lot of money. That good will can come in handy when paired with the right role. After all, remember how easily Robert Downey Jr. swept the Supporting Actor race just a couple of years ago for his surprising turn as Lewis Strauss in Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer? Downey Jr.’s campaign is certainly another blueprint for Johnson, but the former had the advantage of being a previous nominee and someone who was taken seriously back in the 1990s long before the days of Marvel.
The most obvious act for Johnson to follow is that of Brendan Fraser, and it’s clear that he is already taking from Fraser’s rulebook. Like The Whale, The Smashing Machine premiered at Venice, where Johnson was also conveniently caught on camera with tears streaming down his face during the film’s alleged 15-minute standing ovation. The next stop on the film’s campaign trail was the Toronto International Film Festival, which was also the next stop for The Whale before its theatrical release. If that festival strategy isn’t convincing enough for you, guess who Johnson is working with throughout this awards season? That would be A24, the same distributor that expertly navigated Fraser’s path to a win three years ago.
None of this is to say that Johnson’s work is not worthy of an Academy Award. After all, I haven’t seen the film yet. What I have seen, however, is a campaign strategy that we have all seen before. Sure, this strategy may very well work again, but I would argue that it’s time to inject some originality into this already tired roadmap.
The best PR strategies are the ones that seem authentic and almost invisible. People can smell an overly curated PR stunt from a mile away, and that does not always bode well for someone’s reputation—just ask Taylor Swift! Of course, running a truly original Oscar campaign might be hard to achieve for a ceremony that has been in existence for nearly 100 years. Still, Dwayne Johnson is a charismatic guy who hasn’t been through the awards circuit before. Why not use that fresh perspective to his advantage? Otherwise, audiences might catch onto his strategy too early, which can jeopardize the effectiveness of his chances. Right now, though, there are no signs that Johnson will deviate from the path Fraser cleared for him. As they say, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it… for now.
via @justmiaslife